English Quiz 127

(English Quiz 127)

1. Buoyed by a belief that the major emerging markets will handle the challenges facing them, and that the U.S. — despite the worries over the housing sector — will have a soft landing, business leaders made their way to Davos in the sunniest mood that they've been in for years. (Literally: the day before the conference started, the Alpine town was as warm as you'd expect it to be in April, not late January.) A survey of 1,100 ceos in 50 countries by consultants PricewaterhouseCoopers showed that more than 90% were confident about their revenue growth for the coming year and for the three years ahead. Those numbers are record highs. Indeed, business leaders are so bullish that PricewaterhouseCoopers' ceo, Samuel DiPiazza, worries about hubris. "It's such a high level of confidence, we're wondering: Is it overoptimism?" he asks. Oddly, given the fearsome state of global politics, the main concerns of these executives are business related rather than geopolitical.

Q: 試翻 "Buoyed by a belief that ... they've been in for years."

2. One factor that also doesn't show up large on the polled ceos' list of concerns, but which was a big worry for the economists on Time's panel, is the growing backlash against globalization in the U.S. and Western Europe. In the rich world, wages have remained largely stagnant even though productivity has been rising. Governments have made several moves to address such dissatisfaction this year. In the U.S., the new Democratic-majority Congress is proposing to increase the minimum wage, while, in Germany, unions are pushing for pay raises substantially above inflation. Consumer purchasing power has also emerged as a key issue in the French presidential election. Even though Europeans and Americans are worried about globalization, they may not be well-informed about its true ramifications. All the panelists said they were concerned that the big questions relating to globalization, including the huge power shifts under way from the developed economies to the developing ones, were not being well explained in the West. "There isn't adequate intellectual or political debate," said India's Ahluwalia. Pointing to a growing concern in the West about a widening disparity between rich and poor, he said, "For the past 20 years, you told the developing world: Don't worry about inequality, worry about poverty. Now it's the developed world that's worrying about inequality."

Q: 試翻 "One factor that ... in the U.S. and Western Europe."

3. The point, of course, is not just that some sectors of the population within developed economies are doing so much better than others. It is, rather, that all the developed economies are watching their relative power decline. Sure, Germany is showing signs of life after years of weak growth. In Britain, the Bank of England unexpectedly raised interest rates in January in another sign that European economies are rebounding faster than forecast. But the longer-term prospects for Europe are clouded by the fact that its population is set to shrink. Addressing the Forum, German Chancellor Angela Merkel acknowledged that, "for the past 200 years, we got used to a Eurocentric view of the world, but today we can see that this type of overview is over." As for the U.S., the rise of China, India and maybe even Russia as economic forces demanding attention will pose questions that the American political system and society have not even begun to address. "I do worry how the U.S. will respond to the fact that its hyperpower status in terms of finance and wealth has to be reduced over the next 25 years," said Tyson. She has reason to worry: most Americans have no idea so elemental a shift of power is now under way.

Q: 試翻 "It is, rather, ... their relative power decline."

4. But for now, barring an unexpected crisis, the world economy should keep growing at more than 4%, the fourth year in a row at that level. Tyson, for one, bases her optimism on a variety of signs that the world economy is becoming more balanced, from the convergence of European, Japanese and U.S. growth rates at around an expected 2% annually to the growing importance of world trade, which last year for the first time accounted for more than 30% of the global gross domestic product. She and the other panelists aren't becoming cocksure, even in the short term, however. "The Big Bad Wolf is often hiding in the forest where we economists can't see him," Tyson cautioned. But for now, the wolves of the world economy are lurking far afield — and all you can hear is their howling in the distance.